![]() Reports of the regime using the Artesh-its conventional military-and foreign proxies on a large-scale for protest suppression.Īnti-regime protests continued in at least 16 cities in 11 provinces on October 11 and could expand in the days ahead.Reports of security forces transferring away from cities where there are ongoing protests.Unobserved indications that the security forces are experiencing bandwidth issues include: Deadly clashes erupted between protesters and security forces in Zahedan on September 30. Anti-regime, Persian-language social media accounts have called for protester solidarity with the demonstrators in Sanandaj and Zahedan. Simultaneous protests in the border areas and major cities strain these forces-a vulnerability that protesters and other anti-regime groups may seek to exploit. The regime shuffles its forces to where they are needed most-typically the restive border regions-when protests erupt. #Extreme dot by dot crack#The regime relies on a small number select, highly ideological units from the IRGC, Basij, and LEC to crack down on unrest and thus does not have enough manpower to cover the entire country. The concentration of security forces in Kurdistan Province could exacerbate Iranian security forces’ bandwidth issues-a key vulnerability in the regime’s internal security apparatus. An unidentified source told anti-regime outlet Iran International that the IRGC is conducting such an information operation aimed at anti-regime Kurdish militants in Iraqi Kurdistan possibly to scare them away from the border and disrupt their operations. The reports that the regime may conduct a ground incursion into Iraqi Kurdistan may be an Iranian information operation. A Telegram channel run by Iranian proxies in Iraq posted on October 11 that the IRGC is conducting a ground incursion but quickly deleted the post. The IRGC conducted daily artillery, drone, and missile attacks against anti-regime Kurdish militant positions in Iraqi Kurdistan from September 26 to October 7. Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi reiterated this accusation on October 11. Iranian political and security officials have repeatedly accused these groups of coopting and stoking the protests against the regime. The regime may use forces concentrated in the border region to conduct a ground incursion into Iraqi Kurdistan against anti-regime Kurdish militant groups. Social media observers described Sanandaj as a “war zone,” a description that coheres with available pictures and videos of the clashes. Violent clashes between protesters and state security services in Kurdistan Province occurred on October 10 and 11. ĬTP cannot verify these reports and advises caution when evaluating these reports in light of the many, often-conflicting, information operations being conducted by the regime and its opponents. Anti-regime outlet IranWire and a UK-based Sky News journalist reported that the regime is concentrating forces in Kurdistan Province. Social media rumors reported on October 10 that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Law Enforcement Command (LEC) have transferred forces from Hamedan, Yazd, and elsewhere to Sanandaj, where the regime is conducting a brutal crackdown. Unconfirmed reports suggest that the Iranian regime is amassing military and security forces in Kurdistan Province to violently suppress protests and possibly also to conduct a ground operation into Iraqi Kurdistan. To receive Iran Crisis Updates via email, please subscribe here. The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Nicholas Carl, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Zachary Coles, and Frederick W. ![]()
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